City Airport Master Plan - The Expansion Campaign

The airport is pressing ahead with efforts to build support for its expansion plans. Its latest high-profile recruit is Gavin Robinson, leader of the DUP and MP for East Belfast. He recently hosted a Westminster reception for the airport, where he praised the commercial and connectivity benefits the plan would allegedly bring to Northern Ireland.

According to the airport, its vision would “unlock” £200 million of investment, support 20,000 jobs, and attract £1.7 billion to the Northern Ireland economy. Presented in those terms, the proposal sounds highly appealing. After all, what is there not to like when such a rosy future is promised?

A Familiar Pattern at Heathrow

Similar promises have been made about the proposed third runway at Heathrow. Rachel Reeves was even more optimistic, claiming that the project would deliver up to £42 billion to the UK economy and support more than 60,000 jobs. Again, what is there not to like here?

The Missing Costs

However, officials at the Department for Transport reached a very different conclusion when they assessed the Heathrow proposal using the Treasury’s Green Book. Their analysis showed that the airport’s figures focussed on the projected benefits while airily ignoring the offsetting costs!

On that basis, the project was estimated to have a net present value (NPV) of somewhere between minus £23.4 billion and minus £62.5 billion and the authors concluded that Britain would be better off not building the new runway! Rachel Reeves’s figures were out by at best, a minimum of £65 billion or in a worst case scenario, £105 billion! No wonder the country is in trouble.

The Lesson for Northern Ireland

The clear warning for us—and for our politicians—is that claims of major economic benefit must be examined rigorously. They need to be grounded in evidence, not simply asserted without scrutiny. On too many occasions wildly optimistic figures seem to have been plucked out of the air.

A Question for Local Residents

One further question remains. Did Mr Robinson inform his constituents in East Belfast and North Down that, if the airport’s ambitions were realised, the number of flights leaving the airport and passing over their homes would rise from approximately 50 per day to around 150?

Just a thought!

References: The Heathrow Expansion Appraisal Report, Department of Transport, June 2026

The Guardian: 19th June 2026

The Times: 24th June 2026